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Hillary Clinton still have the winning opportunity?
By cpa | March 3, 2008
On this tuesday, Texas and Ohio primaries will be held, Hillary Clinton has a 11-games losing streak, still have the winning opportunity?
Clinton camp wants is to vote tuesday, winning in the two states to restore the 11 straight declines, then beat in the April 22 Pennsylvania to take (an important campaign), this to be the immediate crisis has emerged from the election of Clinton revived. If She can not win over, as long as the small victories in the two states, but also a setback Obama the momentum. For Clinton, next Tuesday, the two campaigns Texas and Ohio, will be back from a defeat if there will be forced to withdraw from the election crisis.
However, these hopes are likely to come to nothing, because Barack Obama become strong, and the longer the election, and his situation will be strong, and Clinton is the situation in the weak; addition, the United States has been generally to the voters Obama regarded as a symbol of hope and change, Hillary launched his any attack, will not be like the role, he was less than James (although he really is a fact that the lack of experience).
Since February 5 after Super Tuesday, Obama the increasingly strong momentum. For example, he into Hillary dominant women and Hispanic both two voters groups. In Texas and Ohio on the eve of the two states to vote, Clinton also rely on the Hispanic vote (mainly Texas) and female votes (mainly Ohio), but Tuesday’s vote, she can achieve in these two large proportion of votes advantages (over 10%), has become a doubt if she votes in the two account for less than obvious advantages, it is difficult-looking.
The past two weeks, Clinton to the full input of resources, in both Texas and Ohio, but in January when the fund-raising significantly behind (only raise 14 million, less than Obama 36 million), resulting in two states, Texas and Ohio, important stakeholders television advertising campaign also lags behind (only invest 4.6 million, less than Obama 7.5 million). Feb 28, Clinton first announced in February raised 35 million, the idea that they can regain that momentum, but Obama camp immediately announced that they raised in February staggering 50 million dollar, Hillary Clinton is a loser battle again.
The situation can be both strong and weak forces from the voter and the tendency of the party itself. In early January this year, before the start of the election, Clinton’s support ratings comprehensive Obama substantial lead, but with the primaries progressed, however, her support for the original leading Obama recover nearly constantly and over, this kind of “support The downturn “has become a fixed pattern, and now this model in two states in Texas and Ohio. The latest polls show Hillary’s support in Texas has been Obama over, and she’s leading in Ohio rate has been shrinking to only a few percentage points.
Forces in the party, having influence with the trade unions and celebrities have invested Oubama party. On the 27th, the original has expressed support for Hillary the civil rights leader John Lewis changed its position and declared Oubama endorsement, this is the Hillary Clinton of a heavy blow. 25 to 26, the governor of the state of Washington in the meeting, a group of Democratic governor publicly expressed support for Obama, this is the party forces a clear tendency Obama.
Since Clinton is likely to loss in Tuesday, then this historic struggle Obama-Hillary how the outcome will be? It depends on the specific voting Tuesday’s results may be, in other words, it depends on Clinton after the election whether there is still opportunity for the nomination.
If Clinton suffered a crushing defeat, losing the battle for the nomination opportunities, it could lead to the domino effect, the party super delegates (super-delegates), and donors like civil rights leaders Lewis, as Oubama orientation, the Democratic Party of the early also will be the end of the election, Clinton of the President road has reached the end of April to wait less than the Pennsylvania primaries, let alone the nomination of the General Assembly in August.
If Clinton on the success of party votes (delegates) to Obama little backward, Clinton camp certainly hope that the election can be crushed, but her supporters will be to put pressure on her and asked her to withdraw from the election If she refused, supporters may open position, turned Oubama.
In any case, after the vote Tuesday, Obama remained strong, almost, is a foregone conclusion in this case, even if the re-election crushed, his momentum will be increasingly high, winning the nomination is still for him.
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